NFL Preseason Handicapping Basics
Sunday, 27 December 2009 09:07 | 
Written by Ross Everett |
There's not much 'middle ground' when it comes to the desirability of betting NFL preseason games. The overly conservative handicappers suggest that its a poor wagering opportunity, while the 'boiler room' sports touts try to suggest that short of a fixed game there's no more sure thing than preseason football. There's a degree of truth in both views. Handicapping preseason NFL football is a unique discipline unto itself, but with knowledge and caution it can be a profitable endeavor.
There's not much 'middle ground' when it comes to the desirability of betting NFL preseason games. The overly conservative handicappers suggest that its a poor wagering opportunity, while the 'boiler room' sports touts try to suggest that short of a fixed game there's no more sure thing than preseason football. There's a degree of truth in both views. Handicapping preseason NFL football is a unique discipline unto itself, but with knowledge and caution it can be a profitable endeavor.
The most compelling argument against preseason wagering is simply that the games don't count. While there are often spots during the regular season where teams may seem more or less motivated, in theory they all want to win. That's not something that can be taken as a 'given' during the preseason, however, as the individual agendas of NFL coaching staffs can very widely. Some might want to win games to establish a winning attitude, others might put a greater focus on working in a new offensive or defensive scheme. Others may prioritize evaluating talent at key positions, while others may simply want to make it through to the regular season without any significant injuries. With all of the uncertainty swirling around preseason football, handicapping wins and losses against the pointspread can be exceedingly difficult.
But like the old saying goes "every dark cloud has a silver lining". And the divergent agendas at play in preseason football can be seen as precisely why it is a good wagering opportunity. For example, say the Superbowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers are set to play an 'also ran' team like the Houston Texans. By regular season standards, the Steelers would almost certainly be favored. In the preseason, however, they'll often have a different agenda for the individual game. A "better" team has more concern about protecting key players. and usually has fewer personnel decisions to deal with. They don't need to worry about implementing coaching changes, or creating 'team chemistry'. As a result, 'better' teams frequently approach preseason games as a mere annoyance.
NFL 'doormats', meanwhile, have a markedly different agenda to their more successful counterparts. They've often got heated competition for starting positions or key back up roles. They've often got new coaching staffs that players want to impress. Most significantly, they're in great need of establishing a winning attitude. A win against an elite team in a 'meaningless' preseason game often has a much greater value to this type of team than to a playoff contender.
Even among teams that don't worry much about wins and losses during the preseason, they don't want to go into the season losing them all. For that reason, one of the most successful preseason situations over the past decade and a half have been teams that lost their first two preseason affairs. During that span, 0-2 teams have hit right around 60% against the spread.
Perhaps nothing determines a team's approach to the preseason more than the philosophy of the head coach. Some coaches simply hate to lose anytime they line 'em up to play football, and as a result their teams are usually good preseason bets. Bill Parcells was famous for the preseason focus of his teams. Not surprisingly, many who worked with Parcells earlier in their careers are now carving out their own records of preseason success. This sort of dominance isn't lost on the linesmaker and a coach like the Giants' Tom Coughlin (a former Parcells assistant) will have his ATS success will definitely been factored into the pointspread. Still, a motivated team that wants to win is always worthy of consideration.
One of the best tools that a handicapper has at his disposal during the preseason is the Internet. Actually, it's a great tool year round but during the preseason it is invaluable. The best source of information on coaching philosophies, game plans, injuries, lineup changes, etc, are the local sports pages of NFL teams. Basically, the situation during preseason is that there is a lot of interest in the team and a lot of anxious beat writers looking to write stories. The problem is that there is little in the way of real news, and for that reason you'll find the sort of minutiae on teams and players from which you can often extract relevant handicapping information. Even if there aren't any nuggets of handicapping gold, you can at least get a feel for the coach's goals for the game and the amount of playing time that key players will see. Sometimes coaches will come right out and say who will play at what juncture of the game, and will occasionally go on record that personnel decisions like evaluating all of the guys they're considering for the backup defensive secondary jobs are more important than winning. Clearly, operating with this knowledge is a distinct advantage and operating without it can be fatal. There's nothing more frustrating than betting on a team only to have them look like they could care less whether or not they win the game. During the preseason, however, it can frequently be prevented with some simple research and analysis.
In closing, the best advice is to not be afraid of wagering on preseason football, but to not get too excited about it either. It's a good chance to grind out a small profit, but definitely not the moneymaking opportunity of a lifetime. There will be plenty of other"and better"football wagering opportunities down the road. Discipline and self-control is always in your best interest when betting on sports, and that certainly is the case in the preseason NFL.
There's not much 'middle ground' when it comes to the desirability of betting NFL preseason games. The overly conservative handicappers suggest that its a poor wagering opportunity, while the 'boiler room' sports touts try to suggest that short of a fixed game there's no more sure thing than preseason football. There's a degree of truth in both views. Handicapping preseason NFL football is a unique discipline unto itself, but with knowledge and caution it can be a profitable endeavor.
The most compelling argument against preseason wagering is simply that the games don't count. While there are often spots during the regular season where teams may seem more or less motivated, in theory they all want to win. That's not something that can be taken as a 'given' during the preseason, however, as the individual agendas of NFL coaching staffs can very widely. Some might want to win games to establish a winning attitude, others might put a greater focus on working in a new offensive or defensive scheme. Others may prioritize evaluating talent at key positions, while others may simply want to make it through to the regular season without any significant injuries. With all of the uncertainty swirling around preseason football, handicapping wins and losses against the pointspread can be exceedingly difficult.
But like the old saying goes "every dark cloud has a silver lining". And the divergent agendas at play in preseason football can be seen as precisely why it is a good wagering opportunity. For example, say the Superbowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers are set to play an 'also ran' team like the Houston Texans. By regular season standards, the Steelers would almost certainly be favored. In the preseason, however, they'll often have a different agenda for the individual game. A "better" team has more concern about protecting key players. and usually has fewer personnel decisions to deal with. They don't need to worry about implementing coaching changes, or creating 'team chemistry'. As a result, 'better' teams frequently approach preseason games as a mere annoyance.
NFL 'doormats', meanwhile, have a markedly different agenda to their more successful counterparts. They've often got heated competition for starting positions or key back up roles. They've often got new coaching staffs that players want to impress. Most significantly, they're in great need of establishing a winning attitude. A win against an elite team in a 'meaningless' preseason game often has a much greater value to this type of team than to a playoff contender.
Even among teams that don't worry much about wins and losses during the preseason, they don't want to go into the season losing them all. For that reason, one of the most successful preseason situations over the past decade and a half have been teams that lost their first two preseason affairs. During that span, 0-2 teams have hit right around 60% against the spread.
Perhaps nothing determines a team's approach to the preseason more than the philosophy of the head coach. Some coaches simply hate to lose anytime they line 'em up to play football, and as a result their teams are usually good preseason bets. Bill Parcells was famous for the preseason focus of his teams. Not surprisingly, many who worked with Parcells earlier in their careers are now carving out their own records of preseason success. This sort of dominance isn't lost on the linesmaker and a coach like the Giants' Tom Coughlin (a former Parcells assistant) will have his ATS success will definitely been factored into the pointspread. Still, a motivated team that wants to win is always worthy of consideration.
One of the best tools that a handicapper has at his disposal during the preseason is the Internet. Actually, it's a great tool year round but during the preseason it is invaluable. The best source of information on coaching philosophies, game plans, injuries, lineup changes, etc, are the local sports pages of NFL teams. Basically, the situation during preseason is that there is a lot of interest in the team and a lot of anxious beat writers looking to write stories. The problem is that there is little in the way of real news, and for that reason you'll find the sort of minutiae on teams and players from which you can often extract relevant handicapping information. Even if there aren't any nuggets of handicapping gold, you can at least get a feel for the coach's goals for the game and the amount of playing time that key players will see. Sometimes coaches will come right out and say who will play at what juncture of the game, and will occasionally go on record that personnel decisions like evaluating all of the guys they're considering for the backup defensive secondary jobs are more important than winning. Clearly, operating with this knowledge is a distinct advantage and operating without it can be fatal. There's nothing more frustrating than betting on a team only to have them look like they could care less whether or not they win the game. During the preseason, however, it can frequently be prevented with some simple research and analysis.
In closing, the best advice is to not be afraid of wagering on preseason football, but to not get too excited about it either. It's a good chance to grind out a small profit, but definitely not the moneymaking opportunity of a lifetime. There will be plenty of other"and better"football wagering opportunities down the road. Discipline and self-control is always in your best interest when betting on sports, and that certainly is the case in the preseason NFL.
About the Author:
Ross Everett is a widely published freelance writer specializing in casino gambling, fine dining and sports betting. He has appeared on a number of TV and radio programs offering strategies for successful NFL football betting. He lives in Southern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a pet llama. He is currently writing a biography of former NFL quarterback Jim Plunkett.